Cilt 15, Sayı 2, Sayfalar 85 - 95 2014-06-10

Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions
Artvin ve Çevresinde Çam Kese Böceği Riskinin Geleceğe Yönelik Modellenmesi

Kahraman İpekdal [1] , Damla Beton [2]

220 290

In recent decades, climate change has been receiving a lot of attention from researchers as it is believed to be proceeding at an extraordinary rate during the last 1,300 years and many studies have attempted to document and predict its environmental effects. Eastern winter pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae), an economically important pest of pines in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, distributed through almost all coastal regions within Turkey. Even though, its European sister species, T. pityocampa is known to be an aggressive invader under global warming in Europe and proved to expand its range towards northern latitudes; there is a lack of knowledge about species current and future status through Turkey, especially Artvin and adjacent regions (Eastern Black Sea Region) where it has not have much effect yet. In this study, we aimed to predict PPM’s current and future distribution through Artvin and adjacent regions by using Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) software. We used 65 sampling points in conjunction with 7 climatic variables that were least inter-correlated and with greatest significant contribution to the distribution model. As the statistical tests showed that the fit of the generated model is good, we further carried on using this model for future predictions. Our results indicated that PPM would expand its range towards Artvin and adjacent regions. Even though, currently this region is not under risk of PPM invasion, models suggest that future climatic conditions might trigger PPM invasion in near future - by 2050 - 2080.

Son 1.300 yılın en yüksek oranlarına ulaşan iklim değişimi son zamanlarda araştırmacıların ilgisini çekmekte ve çevresel etkilerini tahminleyen birçok araştırmaya konu olmaktadır. Çam kese böceği (ÇKB), Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae), Doğu Akdeniz Havzası’ndaki çamlarda son derece önemli zararlara neden olan ve ülkemizde de neredeyse tüm sahil şeridini işgal etmiş bir güvedir. Avrupalı kardeş türü olan T. pityocampa’nın küresel ısınmanın etkisiyle yayılış alanına kuzey enlemlere doğru genişlettiği bilinmektedir. Ancak söz konusu türün Türkiye’deki mevcut ve gelecekteki durumu ile ilgili bilgilerimiz eksiktir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki ÇKB populasyonlarının bugünkü ve gelecekti dağılımının Maksimum Entropi Modellemesi (Maxent) kullanılarak tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. 65 örnekleme noktası ve birbiriyle en az ilişkili ve dağılım modeline en çok katkı sağlayan 7 iklimsel değişken ile birlikte kullanılmıştır. İstatistiksel sınamalar oluşturulan modelin iyi bir şekilde uyum sağladığını gösterdiğinden, bu model gelecek tahminlemesinde kullanılmıştır. Modelimiz çam kese böceğinin dağılım alanını Türkiye’nin kuzeydoğusuna doğru genişleteceğini tahminlemiştir. Günümüzde iklimsel olarak ÇKB istila riski taşımayan Artvin ve civarı modele göre 2020 ve 2050 yıllarında ÇKB istilası için uygun hale gelecektir
  • Avcı M (2000) Investigation on structure of egg- batches, parasitism and egg laying habits of Thaumetopoea pityo-campa (Den. & Schiff.) (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopoeidae) in various regions of Turkey. Turk J Entomol 24:167-178
  • Avcı M, İpekdal K (2015) The pine processi-onary moths, Thaumetopoea pityo-campa and wilkinsoni, in Turkey. In: Roques A (ed) Processionary moths and climate change: an update. Springer, London, pp 141
  • Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezemer M, Brown VK, Butterfield J, Buse A, Coulson JC, Farrar J, Good JEG, Harrington R, Hartley S, Jones TH, Lindroth RL, Press MC, Symrnioudis I, Watt AD, Whittaker JB (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob Change Biol 8:1–16
  • Battisti A (1988) Host-plant relationships and dynamics population processionary caterpillar Thaumeto-poea pityocampa (Denis & Schiffer-müller). J Appl Entomol 105:393-402 pine
  • Battisti A, Stastny M, Netherer S, Robinet C, Schopf A, Roques A, Larsson S (2005) Expansion of geographic range in the pine processionary moth caused by increased winter tempera-tures. Ecol Appl 15,2084– 2096
  • Battisti A, Stastny M, Buffo E, Larsson S (2006) A rapid altitudinal range expansion in the pine processionary moth produced by the 2003 climatic anomaly. Glob Change Biol 12:662-671
  • Buffo E, Battisti A, Stastny M, Larsson S (2007) Temperature as a predictor of survival of the pine processionary moth in the Italian Alps. Agr Forest Entomol 9:65-72
  • Breuer M, Devkota B (1990) Control of Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) by extracts of (Meliaceae). J Appl Entomol 110:128 -135
  • Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science, 292:673–679
  • Démolin G (1969) Comportement des adultes de Thaumetopoea Dispersion écologique. Ann Sci Forest 26:81-102
  • Denis M, Schiffermüller I (1776) Systema-tisches Verzeichnis der Schmetter-linge der Wiener Gegend, Bernardi, Wien
  • Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudı´k M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Divers Distrib 17:43–57
  • Fitzpatrick MC, Gotelli NJ, Ellison AM (2013) MaxEnt versus MaxLike: empi-rical comparisons with ant species distributions. Ecosphere 4:55
  • Halperin J (1990) Life history of Thaumeto-poea spp. (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopo-eidae) in Israel. J Appl Entomol 110: 1-6
  • Harrington R, Fleming RA, Woiwod IP (2001) Climate change impacts on insect management and conservation in temperate regions: Can they be predicted? Agr Forest Entomol 3:233–240
  • Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate sur-faces for global land areas. Int J Clim 25:1965-1978
  • Hódar JA, Castro J, Zamora R (2003) Pine processionary caterpillar Thaumeto-poea pityocampa a new threat for relict Mediterranean Scots pine forests under climatic warming. Biol Cons 110:123–129
  • Hódar JA, Zamora R, Cayuela L (2011) Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean eco-systems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor? Clim Ch DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0371-7
  • Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends Ecol Evol 15:56–61
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).Climate Physical Science Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press (2007).The
  • İpekdal K (2012) Delimination and phylogeography of Turkish pine processionary moth species, Thaume-topoea pityocampa and wilkinsoni. University T. PhD Thesis, Hacettepe
  • Leather SR, Walters KFA, Bale JS (1993) The ecology of insect overwintering. Cambridge University Press, Cam-bridge, UK
  • Mendel Z (1990) On the origin of the pine processionary caterpillar, Thaumeto-poea wilkinsoni Tams (Lep., Thaume-topoeidae) in Israel. J Appl Entomol 109:311–314
  • Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally co-herent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42
  • Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259
  • Robinet C, Baier P, Pennerstorfer J, Schopf A, Roques A (2007) Modelling the effects of climate change on the potential feeding activity of Thau-metopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) (Lep.,Notodontidae) in France. Glob Ecol Biogeo 16:460-471
  • Robinet C, Imbert C-E, Rousselet J, Sauvard D, Garcia J, Goussard F, Roques A, (2012) Human-mediated long-dis-tance jumps of the pine processionary moth in Europe. Biol Invas 14:1557-1569
  • Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57–60
  • Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menze A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh- Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395
  • Vega JM, Moneo I, Armentia A, López-Rico R, Curiel G, Bartolome B, Fernández A (1997) Anaphlaxis to a pine cater-pillar. Allergy 52:1244–1245
Birincil Dil en
Konular
Dergi Bölümü Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Yazar: Kahraman İpekdal
E-posta: kipekdal@gmail.com

Yazar: Damla Beton
E-posta: damlabeton@qwe.com

Bibtex @ { artvinofd29936, journal = {Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi}, issn = {2146-1880}, address = {Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi}, year = {2014}, volume = {15}, pages = {85 - 95}, doi = {10.17474/acuofd.62914}, title = {Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions}, language = {en}, key = {cite}, author = {İpekdal, Kahraman and Beton, Damla} } @ { artvinofd29936, journal = {Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi}, issn = {2146-1880}, address = {Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi}, year = {2014}, volume = {15}, pages = {85 - 95}, doi = {10.17474/acuofd.62914}, title = {Artvin ve Çevresinde Çam Kese Böceği Riskinin Geleceğe Yönelik Modellenmesi}, language = {tr}, key = {cite}, author = {İpekdal, Kahraman and Beton, Damla} }
APA İpekdal, K , Beton, D . (2014). Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions. Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, 15 (2), 85-95. DOI: 10.17474/acuofd.62914
MLA İpekdal, K , Beton, D . "Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions". Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi 15 (2014): 85-95 <http://ofd.artvin.edu.tr/issue/2269/29936>
Chicago İpekdal, K , Beton, D . "Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions". Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi 15 (2014): 85-95
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Artvin ve Çevresinde Çam Kese Böceği Riskinin Geleceğe Yönelik Modellenmesi AU - Kahraman İpekdal , Damla Beton Y1 - 2014 PY - 2014 N1 - doi: 10.17474/acuofd.62914 DO - 10.17474/acuofd.62914 T2 - Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 85 EP - 95 VL - 15 IS - 2 SN - 2146-1880-2146-698X M3 - doi: 10.17474/acuofd.62914 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.17474/acuofd.62914 Y2 - 2017 ER -
EndNote %0 Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi Artvin ve Çevresinde Çam Kese Böceği Riskinin Geleceğe Yönelik Modellenmesi %A Kahraman İpekdal , Damla Beton %T Artvin ve Çevresinde Çam Kese Böceği Riskinin Geleceğe Yönelik Modellenmesi %D 2014 %J Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi %P 2146-1880-2146-698X %V 15 %N 2 %R doi: 10.17474/acuofd.62914 %U 10.17474/acuofd.62914